I’ve been getting a few questions lately about reserve for returns and thought a blog entry would answer them best.
It’s an established fact that bookstores only sell about half of what publishers ship to them. Thus, when a publisher ships 100,000 copies, in all likelihood they will get 50,000 returns. Of course some books do better and some do worse, but as a back-of-the-envelope number 50% works.
Every publisher I’ve ever done business with establishes a “reserve for returns” for each book published. In some cases, this is a contractual number, but usually it is not. In some cases, the contract may call for its elimination after four or six periods, but often not (it really depends on whether your agent negotiates it). With nearly every publisher, an author can complain about how high the reserve for returns is and many publishers will adjust it if the book has been out for a while.
So let’s take a book that ships 20,000 copies and is published March 1st. And let’s assume the publishers royalty periods end 6/30 and 12/31, with statements issued 9/30 and 3/31.
When the first period ends 6/30, the publisher has four months of sales data. It shows 20,000 shipped and 2,000 returns. Thus, the book has a 90% sell-through. Now this is obviously way above average. The publisher knows that more returns will come. And, in fact, since it doesn’t have to report until 9/30, it has at least a couple of more months to watch the data and see what happens. What it sees is another 3,000 returns, say.
So the publisher now knows that in addition to the 2,000 returns in the first period, there will be at least 3,000 more in the second period. And that’s fine. The publisher knows the average sell-through is 50%. So far, it’s running 75%.
But publishers like to hedge their bets. Rather than anticipate just a 50% return, it may anticipate a 75% return. Better safe than sorry, right? So the publisher establishes a “reserve for returns” of an additional 15,000 copies as of the end of the first period (this would include the 3,000 it already knows were returned since the end of the first period and when the statement is going out) and reports a “net sale” of 3,000 copies, which is highly unlikely to earn out the advance unless it was fairly low.
Now the second period ends on 12/31 and the publisher looks at the numbers. Sure enough, returns continued to mount. They got a total of 6,000 in the second period. But, wait, it also got reorders! How great is that? It got 4,000 reorders in the second period. That means it shipped 4,000 more copies, so the net sale is a negative 2,000 copies for the second period alone. But more likely than not, the 6,000 returns were mostly part of the original 20,000 shipped.
The publisher can again look at the next period for a couple of months before it has to report on 3/31. It watches the returns and new shipments. Of the 24,000 total shipped, it has gotten back 11,000 copies and the book now has a net sell-through of 54%. That’s pretty good, but still a bit higher than average.
So the publisher looks at the reserve for returns and sees that 15,000 copies was a bit high. It looks at the second period and sees 4,000 reorders and 6,000 returns. It does the math and finds the book has a total sell-through of 16,000 copies to date or 66%. Still higher than average.